what is happening to the economy right now

“It’s a domino effect: The longer this goes on, the cracks get a bit bigger,” says Samantha Azzarello, global market strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. While we adhere to strict And that’s exactly what came to fruition. October 03, 2019. The heavy deterioration affected all index components. When the engines of the U.S. economy came to a grinding halt, it was only a given that gross domestic product — the mother of all economic data and the broadest scorecard of the U.S. economy — would show record declines. The conditions for gaining access to this money remain a sticking point. Firstly there is the issue of extra spending. “The policy response to COVID-19 is what caused the actual recession. No doubt the next the next generation going to have to pay it back at some stage and more than the last generation. The unemployment rate is now about 10.2 percent, essentially matching the 10 percent peak during the Great Recession. The most important stories happening in the world right now… Ignoring information and productivity (Photo: Getty) A new report from scientists states that ignoring information is actually liable to make you more productive and efficient in the long run. What once gave Americans renewed optimism in the direction of the economy caused consumers apprehension when it expired. What’s Happening in the US Economy & Markets Right Now. Coronavirus cases first started resurging in Texas, Florida, Georgia and Arizona. “The federal relief programs have prevented more substantial declines in consumer finances, partially shielding consumers from the unprecedented surge in job losses, reduced work hours, and salary cuts,” said Richard Curtin, director of the Michigan poll, in a statement. That reality naturally led to a dramatic surge in unemployment. A Red Ventures company. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-05/spanish-government-aims-to-roll-out-basic-income-soon. 1. The EU / Eurozone is a very shaky organisation at this point in time. In the first case consumption will be reduced by 4.1% on Inflation has been the biggest wild card of all. We are talking about 750 billion, almost half of our GDP. 5 Big things happening in the Japanese economy right now. We maintain a firewall between our advertisers and our editorial team. UK:: ok ! “It’s like predicting a ballplayer that hits three home runs on opening day will maintain that pace for the whole season,” says Greg McBride, CFA, Bankrate chief financial analyst. Morally it will be hard to clap them every Thursday evening for the next few months and then go back to valuing them as we have in the past. Manufacturing activity, which was already hurting amid ongoing U.S.-China trade tensions in 2019, posted similar steep declines that have failed to recover fully. Facebook Twitter LinkedIn Tumblr Pinterest Reddit VKontakte Odnoklassniki Pocket Print. I suspended the #Eurogroup & continue tomorrow, thu. Hiring in the U.S. rebounded quicker than expected during May and June, but the pace of job recovery slowed in July. In the first week of March, we’d have answered that gross domestic product above inflation grew 2.4% at an annual rate in the fourth quarter 2019, and the unemployment rate was 3.5% in February 2020. Joblessness rose to 14.7 percent in April, the largest month-to-month increase on record. So if the spending plans above come to fruition we will see it rise to more like 3.2 trillion. And four months into the crisis, Americans are still applying for unemployment benefits in the millions. The real issue is for how long a time? Eurobonds would be an open-ended commitment, hence the use of existing SPVs. I’m sure when it is finally announced, the Euro will rise on the news as well. 5 big things happening in South Africa right now. This compensation may impact how and where products appear on this site, including, for example, the order in which they may appear within the listing categories. Other factors, such as our own proprietary website rules and whether a product is offered in your area or at your self-selected credit score range can also impact how and where products appear on this site. What is America good at doing... or producing The catch with it is the issue of conditionality or if you prefer terms. It’s since, however, fallen, with the index sliding to 72.5 in July. And speaking of BREXIT, quite understandably it has gone rather quiet, on the back burner as they say, will it ever be revisited, or just permanently delayed until quietly cancelled years from now, due to “events… events dear boy”? editorial integrity, this post may contain references to products from our partners. Change ), You are commenting using your Google account. As for the next gen payback – well they only need to afford the interest payment – The Napoleonic debt took about 200 years ? Why would anyone want to take on the inevitable mutualisation of debt – in other words pay for the club med countries for ever. Let us consider what it could do? Looking through the data, my immediate assessment is that the economy remains fundamentally strong, albeit showing cracks that could bite us in the back, if left unaddressed. Whilst the Eurogroup indecison has raised the benchmark ten-year yield by 0.08% today ( and I am assuming the ECB is buying more today to resist this) it is at 1.67% under control. Like a soul without a mind Get today's stock futures, stock market commentary, stocks to watch, analyst upgrades and more. “Just a few months ago, we couldn’t have guessed how this would happen, but we now know how we got here,” Hamrick says. Consumption dropped 12.9 percent in April, nearly doubling the 6.7 percent decline in March, according to the Department of Commerce’s report. Losses for the most part have been broad-based, with significant cuts coming first in retail, food services and tourism, then spreading to broader industries such as health care and state and local governments. Here’s what’s happening in the U.S. economy right now — and how the coronavirus crisis is making or breaking it, based on these important measures. Thank you so much for tuning in today for episode number 22, Tiho, and in this episode, I know you want to cover the global economic situation and what’s going on. Total contribution to EU budget – € 15.215 billion Although actually in a copying of the Juncker Plan that regular readers will recall a lot of this is borrowing and money from Special Purpose Vehicles. At Bankrate we strive to help you make smarter financial decisions. But it’s expensive to provide decent care for the very frail, even at the minimum wage. So who pays and how do they afford it? Unless you’re 100% sure you’ll be able to make your payments when the deferral period ends, you can set yourself up for serious financial pain and long-term damage to your credit score. We continually strive to provide consumers with the expert advice and tools needed to succeed throughout life’s financial journey. Meanwhile, the jobless rate that tracks all persons marginally attached to the labor force, plus those who are working part-time jobs but would rather be working full time, is about 16.5 percent, near record highs. It looks like there will be plenty to buy going ahead and with the economic issues I fear Italy may become something of a tinder box. The state is there and immediately puts its firepower into the engine of the economy. As there would be calls from countries other than Italy the ESM presently needs more ammo. We’re on a road to nowhere ... Trending Now. Technically speaking, the U.S. economy shrank by 9.5 percent in April, May and June. Our mission is to provide readers with accurate and unbiased information, and we have editorial standards in place to ensure that happens. Bankrate has answers. “We just don’t know what the path forward will look like exactly.”. That is, until recently. As General Khalifa Haftar continues his advance towards Tripoli, Ian Bremmer breaks down what's at … Tracking these indicators is an important way of determining where in the trenches the U.S. economy may lie, as well as how close to a recovery the broader system might be. Wise move by the Germans and Dutch, who appear to have been prudent and largely ready for this virus, albeit as I said, it will not last that long (unlike Italy’s debt). “We have to fix one thing at a time, and the Fed did help. The government can’t prevent the coronavirus from damaging the U.S. economy. With slowing global growth, it’s all about the US economy and market right now. Confidence fell for the same reasons it rose in May and June: federal stimulus. New applications for jobless benefits first surged to 3.3 million the week of March 14, far surpassing the previous record rise of 695,000 in October 1982. But this compensation does not influence the information we publish, or the reviews that you see on this site. ” O and as for Eurobonds” is the UK on the hook to contribute to any existing EBonds in the event of default? We do not include the universe of companies or financial offers that may be available to you. (i.e. Something will have to change in my view and I can see Governments using UNI as a solution/smokescreen. Granting the European Investment Bank 25 billion euros of extra guarantees so it can step up lending to companies by a further 200 billion euros is another option. although both services providers and manufactures reported record reductions in output during March. and they are dealing with the Italians very effectively. By most measures, however, the volatility appears to have subsided, largely thanks to the Fed’s interventions. After 16h of discussions we came close to a deal but we are not there yet. Thank you and welcome to my corner of the web. Turkey lira crisis: What is happening in Turkey right now? Therefore, this compensation may impact how, where and in what order products appear within listing categories. Let us cross our fingers and hope that it can mobilise both. Today’s decree brings 400 billion of liquidity for businesses, with the #CuraItalia we had freed 350. My issue with the project was and still is , is that it was all hype and wishful thinking instead of sound fiscal setting . Hopefully someone can sort the bridges out. They threatened to leave the euro, though not the EU, but yields on Greek euro-denominated bonds shot off to a very large spread (something tells me around 25% at the height of the crisis). The consumption fall would determine a value added contraction by 1.9% and 4.5% respectively. It matters for two reasons: When credit markets are dysfunctional, it pushes up interest rates for consumers and firms. Despite turmoil in the real economy, the stock market spent months surging. Here’s what’s happening in the U.S. economy right now — and how the coronavirus crisis is making or breaking it, based on these important measures. We are compensated in exchange for placement of sponsored products and, services, or by you clicking on certain links posted on our site. WHAT IS HAPPENING TO THE PHILIPPINE ECONOMY RIGHT NOW? About 1.1 million Americans applied for unemployment benefits the week that ended on August 1, down from 1.4 million a week earlier. the second in which the lockdown will last until June. The next context is that this is way beyond the ability of the ESM to deal with alone. However the EU and the Euro will NEVER be allowed to fail by the central banks, whatever ends up coming out the other end of this catastrophe, you can be sure the EU, the ECB and the Euro will like their fellow cockroaches and rats after a nuclear devastation be still there. But now, the exchange rate is 40 pesos for every dollar. Those new claims have since leveled off, though remain high above their historic average. Returning to the economics there were hopes from Italy of some financial and economic relief from the overnight Eurogroup meeting so let me hand you over to its President Mario Centeno. If Italy had been reasonably prudent and efficient, the help would be there. After falling in April to its lowest level since 2013, consumer confidence swiftly picked up in May and June, with the index rising to 78.1, according to the University of Michigan’s widely-watched survey of consumers. However, the position is like having a friend or relative, who is always at you, mostly for money, but sometimes to do things to save them money. You can track how this impacts your wallet by looking at the spread between the 30-year fixed mortgage, one of the most popular forms of consumer borrowing, and the Fed’s benchmark rate. A Federal Reserve gauge of industrial production shows that activity rose 5.4 percent and 1.4 percent in June and May, respectively, but that wasn’t enough to offset a record 12.7 percent plunge in April, the steepest decline on record. After holding at half-century lows since 2018, the unemployment rate also skyrocketed to levels not seen since the Great Depression. When it comes to the coronavirus pandemic, experts say that rates rose partially because lenders were overwhelmed by refinancing applications at a time when investors across the financial system were flocking to cash. More and more economists are predicting a recession is imminent as the result of the pullback in the economy caused by COVID-19. Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Bankrate has partnerships with issuers including, but not limited to, American Express, Bank of America, Capital One, Chase, Citi and Discover. Just a few words out of turn by Lagarde and the spread with German bond yields went to 3%. [embedded content]Jordan Roy-Byrne: Welcome back to The Atlas Investor podcast with Tiho Brkan. Growth declined by 5.0% in the first quarter, signaling the onset of the 2020 recession. ECB urges measures worth 1.5 trillion euros this year to tackle virus crisis . So, whether you’re reading an article or a review, you can trust that you’re getting credible and dependable information. “I think of financial markets and the real economy like two pieces dancing together.”. “The outbreak has disrupted economic activity in many countries and prompted significant movements in financial markets,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told reporters at a press conference following the Fed’s first emergency cut, a 50-basis-point reduction. Spend!Spend!”. What is happening to the economy of Italy right now? Actually there were apparently requests for even more money to be deployed. That’s because the overall financial and economic system is flashing between recession red signals and yellow warning signs as it works through the coronavirus crisis, which choked the longest economic expansion on record. They have modelled what they think the impact will be from this. “We know all of the numbers are going to be bad,” Azzarello says. © 2020 Bankrate, LLC. market figures. As Paul Krugman has said, the debt incurred doesn’t matter as it is “money we owe to ourselves”, funny that argument never worked in any country that tried to implement it, but hey “it’s different this time”!!! water bottled is the same. If that did indeed happen, leading to another round of nationwide shutdowns, it would spell even more trouble for the U.S. economy. increase of precautionary expenditure for food in the first phases of the health emergency. That defeats the purpose of slashing rates to zero. Now we just have to put people back to work on the real side of the economy.”. “If we thought the worst we’d ever see with economic data would be during the financial crisis and Great Recession, the virus proved us wrong,” says Mark Hamrick, Bankrate’s senior economic analyst. “Now we’re talking about how bad really they’re going to be.”. The good and the bad in South Africa’s economy right now Vodacom signs major African broadband deal with Intelsat Next article 5 important things happening … And it too was centred on Lombardy, this province has double the death rate from flu/pneumonia than any other provence regularly each year. Which certificate of deposit account is best? If we look at the public debt of Italy it was 2.44 trillion Euros at the end of the third quarter of last year. Having said that, let us now compare the state of the economy today versus how it was three years ago, before President Duterte took over. Long story short, it’s going to take a few years. Our experts have been helping you master your money for over four decades. There is a lot of talk about the economy happening at the moment and you may have found yourself trying to decipher the complex world of money. Free money! Quantitative Easing and Extraordinary Monetary Measures. Retail trade improved possibly due to the Interesting piece on DW https://youtu.be/d7EzfPNJZgw. Our editorial team receives no direct compensation from advertisers, and our content is thoroughly fact-checked to ensure accuracy. Italy is of course a much larger economy and (I was surprised to learn) actually a slight net contributor to the EU. re “We are talking about 750 billion, almost half of our GDP. The state is there and immediately puts its firepower into the engine of the economy. No Rush Purchases as Japan Expects Another Sales Tax Hike. by Shaun Richards. Is the Philippine economy in a crisis? These If you need a first-payment deferral to afford a new car, now is probably not the right time for you to buy or lease. Economists say that number is likely underestimating the problem, with gig-economy workers and the self-employed applying for another form of benefits granted through the CARES Act known as the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program. Given that the coronavirus is the root of these problems, it might not come as a surprise that you should watch case counts across the U.S. and world, as well as hospitalization rates. Right now, with these Hindenburg omen signals occurring, it's fully priced. Employers in March and April cut a whopping 22.2 million positions, enough to wipe out a decade’s worth of job gains during the previous economic expansion. Unemployment was also likely 5 percentage points higher, based on the way that the Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates joblessness, officials wrote in a complementary document with the report. With the economy shrinking we could see a debt to GDP figure of the order of 200% for a time. A separate consumer poll from the Conference Board showed that confidence also slumped in July, decreasing to 92.6 from a revised 98.3. U.S. central bankers, however, indicated in records of their June gathering that disinflationary pressure is a bigger concern. (equivalent to 0.58 % of the Italian economy) Rolos pack of 12 is now 8 More precisely, for sectors in lockdown or for which we assume that the turnover is near zero Treasury yields across the curve have plunged to their lowest levels ever, with shorter-term Treasury bills even trading in negative territory intraday since the pandemic rained fire on the financial system. unprecedented, unlimited bond-buying program, trillions in the market for short-term repurchase agreements, 11 emergency lending facilities designed to get credit flowing, data from the Centers for Disease Control, activity rose 5.4 percent and 1.4 percent in June and May, respectively, but that wasn’t enough to offset a record 12.7 percent plunge in April, massive amounts of stimulus coming out of both sides of Washington, Stimulus checks: What consumers should consider doing with the money, What to do if you can’t pay your loans during the coronavirus, Avoid going overboard on cash withdrawals during coronavirus crisis, Survey: Expect the Fed to cut rates at least two more times over the next year, Survey: Recession odds diminishing for U.S. economy, but watch for a slowdown, Survey: 40% of top economists expect Fed to cut rates over next year, Privacy policy / California privacy policy. Passive income ideas to help you make money, Best age for Social Security retirement benefits, choked the longest economic expansion on record, Bureau of Labor Statistics calculates joblessness, broader categories of labor underutilization and detachment, CARES Act known as the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program, extra $600 in weekly unemployment benefits having expired on July 31. two emergency meetings within 13 days of each other. And when stocks decline sharply and swiftly, it threatens solvency among firms. Our goal is to give you the best advice to help you make smart personal finance decisions. because no excuse and I do fervently hope Italy does not fall flat on its face , gasping , as its been infected with financial corona for a while now! The Composite Output Index* dropped from 50.7 in February to 20.2 in March, falling a record 30.5 points and signalling the sharpest contraction in Italian private sector output since the series began in January 1998. Virtually all corners of the economy have been hit hard during the pandemic, with some of the nastiest declines in real estate and manufacturing. However, this is a rerun of Greece – when it came out that they retired at 55 and didn’t bother taxing half their economy, sympathy drained away. The U.S. economy shrank by 32.9 percent in the second three months of 2020. There are essentially four topics at play. We are an independent, advertising-supported comparison service. Like everyone, I am sympathetic to Italy’s plight, especially as they don’t have a regular winter flu spike in deaths carrying off the elderly and infirm. Fed officials are expecting elevated unemployment through 2022, according to forecasts updated in June. All of this is taking a toll on consumer confidence, what many economists attribute as a leading indicator of where consumer spending is heading. These three institutions have issued mutualised debt, i.e. Yesterday the Italian Statistics Office produced its Monthly Report. In a body without a heart This has collided with a regular problem which is that the countries which would in effect be financing this are not keen at all whereas those that would benefit are very keen but cannot persuade the former. Our goal is to help you make smarter financial decisions by providing you with interactive tools and financial calculators, publishing original and objective content, by enabling you to conduct research and compare information for free - so that you can make financial decisions with confidence. My goal remains: A strong EU safety net against fallout of, (to shield workers, firms &countries)& commit/ to a sizeable recovery plan, Today’s decree brings 400 billion of liquidity for businesses, with the. Here’s an explanation for Our award-winning editors and reporters create honest and accurate content to help you make the right financial decisions. Protect Yourself!! why not before ? Another key measure of U.S. inflation, the core consumer-price index (CPI) that excludes volatile food and energy categories, fell by the most on record in April to 0.9 percent. Given that no one can see the future, it’s important to remain focused on recession-proofing your finances. We have been down this road so many times now and have always ended up singing along with Talking Heads. Bankrate follows a strict editorial policy, so you can trust that we’re putting your interests first. As of August, however, more Midwestern states are seeing the most per-capita increases, including Oklahoma, Nebraska and Illinois. Economic data has firmed up in the past few weeks: the job market looks healthy, this quarter’s growth promises to be positive, and consumers keep spending. Everything you need to know about the stock market today. About one-tenth of the U.S. workforce is drawing unemployment benefits as of July 25, another job market measure closely tracked. Change ), You are commenting using your Facebook account. About 2 in 5 said they weren’t planning to shop at traditional in-person retailers as much as before the pandemic, driven in large part by fear of contracting the virus. ( @TradingFloorAudio ), The next issue is how this will be paid for? Putting the printing presses in full steam, writing off debt and giving people handouts is being considered to help people get by: https://uk.investing.com/news/economy/ecbs-villeroy-only-a-big-downside-risk-to-inflation-could-trigger-radical-policy-rethink-2091959. Ian Bremmer breaks down the latest about what's happening Libya now. yearly basis in the second case by 9.9% . Finally in this sweep we have the elephant in the room which is the issuing of joint Euro area bonds or as they have been rebranded Corona Bonds. Meanwhile, other measures of the labor market tracking broader categories of labor underutilization and detachment show that many Americans are still suffering, with about 16.3 million individuals still unemployed and even more underutilized. Keep reading to learn how the economy is doing right now. “That was a clear indication that conditions were tight,” Azzarello says. A faster-than-expected rebound in hiring, matched with massive amounts of economic stimulus from Congress, have aided consumers’ wallets — so much that consumer spending picked up at a faster pace than was expected. ( Log Out /  This compensation may impact how, where and in what order products appear. Taking that ride to nowhere When both the EIB and the ESM increase their actions, they need to issue bonds to finance their lending. Jobs and Unemployment The economy gained 638,000 jobs in October, but that still was not yet enough to restore the 20.5 million jobs lost in April, when the unemployment rate hit 14.7%. ( Istat). hmm, wouldn’t Universal National Income be more acceptable wording ? First signals of COVID -19 economic effects are displayed by March consumer and business surveys -which deteriorated sharply- and February extra EU trade and retail trade. More They had lived for years off the Bundesbank by borrowing at near-German rates and then misusing what they borrowed. “I think, now, there's still $11 trillion, at least, of government debt around the world that's at a negative rate,” Buffett told Yahoo Finance’s editor-in-chief, Andy Serwer.. “So we've never seen it before.” negative signals suggest that there might be in the coming months a deterioration in income, consumption and labour But they have enough problems with debt, illegal immigrants, the odd earthquake and now Corona to be in any position to make threats. Economic Collapse is Happening Now! Cases are falling in Florida and Arizona, while flattening in Texas and Georgia. It also foreshadowed the second quarter’s steep decline because shutdowns to stop the spread of the coronavirus weren’t enacted until mid-March, toward the end of the quarter. Smarter financial decisions ( Massive Attack ) economy resembled any object, it pushes up interest for! 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Not include all companies or all available products something and it too was centred on Lombardy, this has... Data dating back to the economy the largest month-to-month increase on record is, is that little issue conditionality! Three institutions have issued mutualised debt, i.e, are you sitting comfortably you or to threats. Were apparently requests for even more trouble for the club med countries for ever a unique phenomenon right.... More and more economists are predicting a recession is imminent as the result of the economy … is! Details below or click an icon to Log in: you are commenting using your WordPress.com.! To remain focused on recession-proofing your finances % 40BBCWorld & at_custom2=twitter & at_campaign=64 & at_custom1= 5Bpost+type! Side of the pullback in the Japanese economy right now July, to... More Italian bonds than the first, which endured the COVID-19 pandemic posted on this site Milan and that! 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With Tiho Brkan now. ” have modelled what they think the impact will paid. To you either to bite the hand that feeds you or to make threats you can trust that ’. Organisation at this point in time in a better recovery position you master your money for over four.! Households was 8.2 %, 0.1 percentage points lower than in the event that you on! Economy: negative interest rates for consumers and firms and market right now on this site matters for reasons! “ that was a policy choice to shut down the economy caused by COVID-19 “EU bullies” again – expected. Of cash in the second three months of 2020 area ones ecb has been in play is! Are you sitting comfortably area ones them stay in business a market,... For economic reasons ensure the information we publish, or the reviews that you unexpectedly your... Is for how long a time, and not influenced by advertisers anyone want to take on the as.

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